Meghívó
A PPKE BTK Politológia Tanszék és PPKE BTK Modern Kelet-Ázsia Kutatócsoport szeretettel meghívja önt a következő PEACH előadásra:
Előadó: Stéphane Duperray (ICES Département de Sciences Politiques)
Cím: The challenges of a changing demography in China
Időpont: 2017. április 17. 10:15-11:45
Helyszín: PPKE BTK Sophianum (1088 Budapest, Mikszáth tér 1.) 112-es terem
Nyelv: angol
Az előadás tartalma:
Introduction : what demographics can forecast
As a science of studying the populations, demography is able to give accurate forecasts about population changes long time before they appear.
1. Overall importance of Chinese population trends
20% of the world inhabitants are Chinese. Its evolution has a deep impact on the rest of the world.
2. Demographic evolution of maoïst China
Between huge natality and mass starvation, China experienced different population control policies but its strong growth undermined the economic development.
3. The one-child policy and its current consequences
Set up when population increase was already slowing, this policy had a perverse effect as it created a serious and prolonged gender imbalance and marriage squeeze.
4. China rapid ageing population: getting old before getting rich
China experienced the most rapid demographic transition. Population does not replace itself since the 90's and will peak between 2020-2030 before starting to decrease.
5. Impacts on the society and the economy
Traditional family system where adults supports parents and elders will collapse while the economy will have to bear these charges with an already shrinking work force.
Conclusion: is China a « tiger paper » ?
Indian population will overpass China's by 2020-25. Can China's power overpass the US with an economic growth seriously curtailed by the demographic burden?
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